2009 Oscars Predictions

Ok, I want to get this up quick before the show starts. The tentative plan is to take elaborate notes of the ceremony and post them on here afterward, as sort of a pseudo-live blogging of the event. But first, let me use the gift of prophesy to kill the fun.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Female):

• I don’t know why the Academy still insists on using the anachronistic term, actress, for this award. It seems like someone would have made a fuss about this by now.
• Kate Winslet is going to win, sort of deservedly. Her performance in “Revolutionary Road” was the best of year (apologies to Sally Hawkins and Meryl), but for whatever reason, the Academy decided to nominate Winslet for her other, far less interesting, and far less “leading” role in “The Reader.” Her turn as an illiterate, omni-naked pedophile-turned-Nazi war criminal certainly passes the controversy test for Oscars success, but I found it somewhat shallow. Perhaps intentionally, we never see her as anything other than an emotional catalyst for the film’s narrator; no depth arises out of the character’s own struggles. In “Revolutionary Road,” however, Winslet scalds. At once strong and fragile, her performance does justice to the unbelievably tragic plight of the mentally ill, mid-20th-century American woman. Oh well, at least the right person is being honored.
• Kate’s, Meryl’s, and Anne Hathaway’s nominations are deserved, and though I haven’t seen Frozen River, I’ve heard wonderful things about Melissa Leo’s performance. Angelina, though a fine actress, is out-classed this year. I would have liked to have seen her nomination go to the effervescent Sally Hawkins for “Happy-Go-Lucky.” She has all the charm of Audrey Hepburn, with none of the unapproachable sophistication. I challenge anyone to resist falling in love with her.

Best Actor in a Leading Role (Male):

• It’s no secret that this is a two-man race between Rourke and Penn. And when you’re dealing with two such near-perfect performances, you can either split hairs (Rourke benefited from life-imitating-art; Penn didn’t seem to react appropriately to grave situations–his boyfriend’s suicide seems to affect him for all of about two on-screen minutes.) or just go with personal preference. As I think Mickey Rourke is one of the most awesome, sexiest dudes ever, I’ve got to go with the Ram for my pick. Whether the Academy will agree will depend on how much of Penn’s recent momentum arrived with enough time to affect the voting.
• This category also suffers from some serious voter-incompetence issues. Richard Jenkins’s inclusion is great, but Brad Pitt, while a fine actor (and even a reasonable dark horse supporting actor nominee for his hilarious performance in “Burn After Reading”) is seriously out of his league. Frank Langella is a fantastic actor, but his Richard Nixon doesn’t pass my test for a leading role, as he’s consistently portrayed as only an observational phenomenon. I’d like to have seen one of their nominations go to Chiwetel Ejiofor, for his fiery performance in the overlooked Mamet project, “Redbelt.” Also snubbed were Clint Eastwood, doing the same old thing in “Gran Torino”, but doing it damn well, and the understated Michael Sheen as “Frost/Nixon’s” true lead and metaphysical glue.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Female):

• Here, the Academy’s Winslet mess-up opens the door for the very deserving Penelope Cruz to take home the golden boy for her deliciously exaggerated work in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.”  Speaking of which, are there three sexier people on Earth than Penelope Cruz, Scarlett Johansson, and an un-coiffed Javier Bardem? I don’t think there are, and kudos to Woody Allen for figuring that out.
• Look out for a possible upset by Viola Davis. If her few minutes in “Doubt” stick in everyone else’s heads as much as they’ve stuck in mine, she’s got a real shot.
• Yet another actor is nominated for something other than her best performance of the year. Amy Adams wasn’t bad in “Doubt,” but I much preferred her fearless, freewheeling character in “Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day,” one of the most underrated films of ’08. It’s almost magical the way she’s able to balance the role’s inner vulnerability.
• Two big snubs here: Debra Winger’s haunting portrayal of a fiercely angry woman in “Rachel Getting Married” and “The Visitor’s” unknown Hiam Abbass–definitely the sexiest Arab grandmother on screen.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role (Male):

• It’s a shame that Michael Shannon ran into the dead-gay-cowboy juggernaut. He really deserves more recognition for so adequately and harrowingly serving as the insane voice of reason in “Revolutionary Road.” But, no matter how much anyone else deserves it, this one’s been Heath’s for some time now. Don’t get me wrong, Ledger’s Joker is a brilliantly molded character, and his posthumous receipt of this award is far from unjust.
• Two unnominated actors deserve recognition for incredible performances as completely unpalatable characters. Toby Jones brought Karl Rove to hideous life in Oliver Stone’s “W.”, and Eddie Marsan brings darkness and gravitas to his role as a racist, psycho driving instructor, the essential, dark, contrasting undertone to Sally Hawkins in “Happy-Go-Lucky.” Speaking of which…

Original Screenplay:

• “Happy-Go-Lucky” is one of the finest crafted screenplays in years. Mike Leigh creates a beautiful character, whose flaws are evident, but endearing. He contrasts her adequately with sufficiently hard-boiled foils, and lets the characters dictate the direction and pace of the plot. Really well-done. Traditionally, this category is the Academy’s chance to recognize more quirky, otherwise under-recognized pictures, so my money’s with Leigh tonight.
• No complaints with the nominees for this category, although I can’t really understand the exclusion of “The Wrestler.”

Adapted Screenplay:

• I really don’t knwo who’ll win this one. I think the best of the bunch is Peter Morgan’s sharp, well-woven “Frost/Nixon,” but he loses points for adapting his own stage play. I’m expecting a Slumdog glut tonight, so I’ll give this one to Simon Beaufoy for his adaptation of the novel, “Q & A.”
• The most undeserved nomination of the night goes to Eric Roth for his emotionally stifled adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.” Roth won this award in 1995 for “Forrest Gump.” Since then, he’s been nominated twice without a win. He may bring it home again this year for the EXACT SAME DAMN SCREENPLAY that he used to win a decade ago. “You never know what’s coming at you,” Queenie tells young Benjamin. That’s right, and do you know why? Because life is like a ephin’ box of tasty-ass chocolates.

The Curious Face of Forrenjamin Gumpton

Best Picture:

• Is there any question that “Slumdog” will win this one? None of the other 2008 movies in its class (The Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Dark Knight, Wall-E, etc.) are nominated. Benji Button won’t win, because the Academy doesn’t want me posting the above picture every day for the rest of my life. “Milk” is a great movie, but it’s no match for “Slumdog Millionaire” and its unstoppable PR tsunami. My favorite film of 2009 (and #59 on my all-time list) is also America’s favorite. It will win, and I’m glad.

Directing:

• Kind of a boring category this year–all the same nominees as Best Picture. Danny Boyle wins for Slumdog, and David Fincher sets his sights on 2010 with “Zodiac 2: Fourteen Hours of Me Turning Pages of Case Files on Camera.” I’ll wait for the director’s cut.

Other:

• Best Animated Film: “Wall-E”, in the conspicuous absence of “Waltz with Bashir,” wins handily.
• Art Direction: No clue, but I’ll go with the crappy, but sumptuous, Benji Button.
• Cinematography: I pick Benji to win, but “The Dark Knight” deserves it.
• Costume Design: Don’t period pieces always win this? I’ll go with “The Duchess.”
• Documentary: “Man on Wire” wins, and “Encounters at the End of the World” applauds quietly, even though it knows it’s the better movie.
• Documentary, Short Subject: Who the hell knows? I pick “Smile Pinki,” because if my name were Pinki, it would smile ALL THE TIME.
• Foreign Language Film: The shadiest category avoids more controversy by rewarding the best nominee: “Waltz with Bashir.” But seriously, what is wrong with our world when this category doesn’t include either “Let the Right One In” or “Gomorrah”? What do we have to do to get some vampires and mobsters up in this biotch?
• Film Editing: Slumdog should win this.
• Makeup: Benjamin Button will win for making Brad Pitt the sexiest ugly-old-man ever. “The Dark Knight” deserves it for using makeup to create the new Joker’s face–one of the most recognizable film images of the 21st century.
• Music (Score): Slumdog’s global grooves beat out the more traditional nominees.
• Music (Song): Another win for Slumdog. I’ll go with “Jai Ho,” because the Bollywood dance scene from the end of the movie rocks my socks and rolls my soul. Easily the most glaring snub of the year is the omission of Springsteen’s haunting paean to the demigod that is Mickey Rourke.
• Short Film (Animated): I’ve seen them all, except for “La Maison en Petits Cubes,” and I’m tempted to pick it, but I’ll go with “Presto,” because Pixar can do no wrong. Check out “This Way Up,” when you get a chance. It was seriously funny, in a frighteningly macabre way.
• Short Film (Live Action): I’ve seen none, but I’ll go with “Manon on the Asphalt,” because I like the title.
• Sound Editing/Sound Mixing: I don’t even know what the difference is, so I’ll pick the two best sounding movies (Slumdog and “The Dark Knight”) and give myself points for either category. What’s that? Well, this is my blog. That’s why. If you don’t like it, go read the Huffington Post.
• Visual Effects: “The Dark Knight” wins.

Whew, that took forever, and was probably WAY not worth the thirteen views it will get. Oh well. I’m ready for you, Wolverine. Prepare to be verbally eviscerated with my wit–sharper and more forceful than your claws, with 99% less harmful free radicals than Adamantium.